How much to order for a busy night

The two ways to get a big night wrong cost very different amounts. Running out at nine on the busiest night of the month costs you the rest of the night and some of the goodwill. Over ordering costs you the holding, and on most lines it costs you nothing at all because the stock keeps. Order accordingly.

Order to the top of the range, staff to the bottom

If a crowd estimate is a range, use both ends of it, but not for the same decision. Staffing is a committed cost the moment you write the rota, so the low end protects you. Stock on a keeping line is a deferred cost, so the high end protects you. The single worst combination is staffing for the optimistic number and ordering for the pessimistic one, which is what happens when you only ever carry a single figure in your head.

Split your lines by what happens if it does not sell

1. Keeps indefinitely

   Bottled and canned drinks, spirits, dry goods, packaging, glassware. Over order freely. The only real cost is the cash tied up and the space it takes, and both are recoverable. This is where you buy your insurance against a big night.

2. Keeps for a while

   Kegs within their window, frozen lines, hard cheeses, root vegetables. Over order moderately, and know the date you need to have moved it by. A big night followed by a quiet week is the scenario that catches people here.

3. Does not keep

   Fresh fish, salad, soft fruit, anything prepped. Order to the middle of the range and build the specials so that the prep flexes. This is the only category where an over order genuinely becomes waste, so this is the only category worth being conservative about.

Match the order to the kind of crowd

A crowd figure tells you how many. The category tells you what they want, and the two together are what an order needs.

• Sports crowds are draught and bottled beer heavy, arrive early, and eat fast food rather than courses. Order kegs and fryer stock, not fillets.
• Concert crowds skew toward cocktails and soft drinks, with a younger average age and a lighter food spend. Garnish, ice and mixers run out before the spirits do.
• Theatre and comedy audiences want wine and a proper pre show dinner in a fixed window. Order for covers, not for volume.
• Family matinees want soft drinks, coffee and children's portions, at lunchtime, and almost nothing after six.

Ice, glassware and the things nobody counts

The lines that actually stop service on a big night are rarely the ones on the order sheet. Ice is the classic. Clean glassware is the second, because a rush that doubles your covers doubles the wash load in the same room with the same machine. Card terminals, change, and till roll round out the list. None costs much to double up on, and any one of them can close a bar for twenty minutes at the worst possible time.

Get the numbers before the order deadline

All of this is only useful if it arrives before you place the order, which for most suppliers means several days out. That is the real argument for looking a week ahead rather than a day: not that the night will surprise you less, but that you can still do something about it. Gigwake sends the 7 days ahead to your inbox on the morning you choose, ranked, with the crowd range on every event, so the list is in front of you while the order is still open.